Monday, January 21, 2013

Thailand’s land and houses presales to jump by 19.5% in 2013

Check out which segment topped the sales last year.

According to Maybank Kim Eng, it expects 2013 presales to grow by 19.5% to THB30bn, potentially another new high after record presales in 4Q12 brought the 2012 presales to THB25.1b (+30.8% YoY), beating its estimates by 14%.

Here’s more:

SDH was c.67% of the presales while townhouses accounted for 8% and condos, 25%. In 2013, LH’s presales of THB30b will be of 85%:15% Metro-Bangkok: Provinces ratio drawn from a pool of 24 new projects (worth THB43.3bn) – 10 SDH, 4 TH, 10 Condo. Fifteen projects will be launched in Metro-Bangkok and nine in the provinces.

The Bangkok Sathorn (worth THB7b) and The Room Aree (worth THB1b) postponed from last year will be launched this year. Maintain FY12-13F earnings estimates. We maintain our FY12 revenue forecasts of THB24.2b,+25.5%YoY, and net profit estimates of THB5.5b, down 1.5%YoY.

The actual net profit could beat our estimate by 1-2%, potentially coming from higher affiliate contributions. We expect 4Q12 revenue at ~THB7b (+21.5%YoY, +3.2%QoQ) and net profit at THB1.4b (-13.6%YoY, -7.2%QoQ). As for FY13, LH already has THB4.4b potential sales to be recognized out of the THB7.6bn total backlog.

We maintain our FY13 revenue forecasts at THB26.8b,+10.9% YoY, and net profit of THB5.991b, +8.5% YoY. Property fund in 2H13, more US investment. LH is studying the possibility of setting up a property fund in 2H13 consisting of Terminal 21 (serviced apartments and a shopping mall), Grand Centre Point Wireless Road, and Grand Centre Point Rachadamri, totalling THB9.9b.

LH may reconsider bringing all three assets into one fund due to the difference in property types. In 2013, LH will spend THB1b on two projects in the US. HOLD for dividends; property fund upside in 2H13. Based on a forward PER of 17x, our target price is THB10.10. With a slower growth outlook compared with the sector and a high PER, we recommend investors HOLD the stock for its dividend yield of c.5% pa. For 2013, the DPS does not include the one-time of THB1/sh from the property fund.

Martin Koh | 86666 944 | R020968Z
Sherry Tang | 9844 4400 | R020241C
Senior Sales Director
DTZ Debenham Tie Leung (SEA) Pte Ltd (L3006301G)

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