Monday, January 14, 2013

Seriously, the latest property measures aren't jaw-dropping

Here are 3 reasons why.

According to Barclays Research, the Singapore government has issued its most comprehensive set of measures yet, again targeting investors in private and public housing, and for the first time, the hybrid housing (ECs), as well as speculators in the industrial sector.

Given the extensive extensions of previous ABSD and LTV schemes, the firm believes these should be the most effective in bringing down volumes and stabilising prices.

Here's more from Barclays:

We expect developer takeup to correct 30-35% from 2012’s record 23,000 level to a more sustainable 15-16,000 unit level, which would align better with longer term occupier demand.

We, however, expect mass market prices to be stable given healthy developer and end-buyer balance sheets, low speculation levels and low unsold inventory (20%). This should be negative on developers on margin concerns and slower volumes. Liquidity could be channelled into strata office and retail assets, and REITs.

This is the most comprehensive set of measures, but somewhat it is expected. Some sort of measures should have been expected by the market because: 1) land prices bid by developers have increased 22% in 2012 vs 2011; 2) prices of some recent launches have risen sharply over the past month, eg. Spottiswoode Suites and Echelon, and takeup has been healthy; 3) 4Q12 flash prices showing an accelerated 1.8% q/q uptick (3Q12: +0.6%), its fastest pace in six quarters.

These occured despite the tightening of loan tenures and LTVs only on 5 October, reflecting the strong liquidity and low interest rates in the system.

Martin Koh | 86666 944 | R020968Z
Sherry Tang | 9844 4400 | R020241C
Senior Sales Director
DTZ Debenham Tie Leung (SEA) Pte Ltd (L3006301G)

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