Tuesday, January 15, 2013

Here's how loan growth tumbles whenever a cooling measure is introduced

Wait until 1Q13 before latest measures materiaze.

Housing loans grew 15.1% y-o-y in October and 16.1% in November (Sep 12: +14.5%) despit the October measures.  DBS expects a slight moderation in housing loan growth in December, although that could be seasonal.

"We were waiting to see the impact of the Oct 12 measures in 1Q13 but with the new measures, the combined impact may only be visible towards end 1Q13 or early 2Q13. "

Here's more from DBS:

Based on previous instances, mortgage applications fell over 2-3 months upon the introduction of such measures, but subsequently normalised.

Since 2010, housing loan growth had peaked at 23.4% in Aug 10. Measures introduced in Jan- 11 saw housing loan growth decline from 23% y-o-y to 14.5% y-o-y in Sep 12.

The low interest rate environment had kept mortgage rates low, which continued to drive demand for housing loans and residential properties.

Martin Koh | 86666 944 | R020968Z
Sherry Tang | 9844 4400 | R020241C
Senior Sales Director
Email: marshe_inc@yahoo.com.sg
DTZ Debenham Tie Leung (SEA) Pte Ltd (L3006301G)

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